In the six years that have separated us from the Paris Agreement (2015), plus the year of grace for the pandemic, the countries that signed the agreement were free to develop their Nationally Determined Ambition (NDCs) plans for their post-2020 actions to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2030. It was only last September that the NDCs from 194 countries were finalized, some of them for the second time.
The Synthesis Report of these NDCs that came out this week from COP-26 shows that countries’ ambitions are far from achieving the Paris Agreement’s target of less than 2ºC of warming. In fact, if countries’ global ambitions are realized, we would be at a warming of around 4.5°C by the end of this century.
The information provided by the NDC analysis implies an urgent need to significantly increase the level of ambition of the NDCs by 2030 or to significantly exceed the latest NDCs, or a combination of both, in order to reach the optimal emissions levels suggested in many of the scenarios considered by the IPCC to keep warming well below 2ºC or limit it to 1.5ºC.
If emissions are not reduced by 2030, they will have to be substantially reduced thereafter to compensate for the slow start on the path to net zero emissions.
Some countries provided information on long-term mitigation visions, strategies and targets up to 2050 and beyond, referring to climate neutrality, GHG neutrality or net zero emissions.
The total level of GHG emissions provided by these countries is estimated to be around 1.5 Gt Co2 eq in 2030, a 26% reduction from 2010 emissions levels. Climate science indicates that the reduction by 2030 will need to be 50% to meet the Paris target of 2°C of warming.
Clearly, beyond the good intentions of leaders at the start of this week, imminent action is required. We can wait no longer.
Find out more at: NDC Synthesis Report | UNFCCC
